Hemnet: Trouble in ARPA Paradise
In a shifting market environment, revenue growth at Sweden’s leading real estate portal, Hemnet, has ground to a halt – revealing the limits of its past strategy.
Why it matters: Hemnet went all-in on a single growth lever – pricing power – and must now invent its next act to combat the rise in pre-market listings.
Hemnet is the undisputed, global queen of average revenue per listing (ARPL) growth, driven by home sellers choosing to buy higher-priced upgrades that offer more visibility for their listing.
Since 2016, Hemnet’s average revenue per listing has increased from SEK 823 to SEK 10,916 – a 13x increase — a feat unmatched by any other portal.
SEK 11,000 is about $1,200 USD, and because Sweden is a vendor-funded market, that cost is paid by the homeseller.
Historically, average revenue per listing growth has directionally matched an increase or decrease in listing volumes.
In the past, strong quarterly ARPL growth was enough to offset listing declines, but the story changed in Q3 when revenue growth turned negative.
And in the subsequent quarter, listing volumes continued to plummet while ARPL shot up, shifting the question from whether Hemnet can continue to grow ARPL to whether there are enough listings to monetize.
The situation is affecting earnings, and while there have been earnings hits in the past, it’s never been this extreme: EBITDA dropped 41 percent over two quarters.
Hemnet increased headcount from 152 (2024) to 167 (2025) even as revenue growth stalled; new product development requires investment.
A clue to what’s going on can be found in Hemnet’s most recent earnings release.
“...a larger share of the sales cycle takes place on the pre-market…” and “Transactions on the platform decreased by ~5% in 2025…”
Translation: more people are selling their home before listing on Hemnet.
The bottom line: For years, Hemnet has been the darling of the global real estate portal world, with enviable growth rates and complete market dominance.
But cracks in its strategy are starting to show – exacerbated by a shifting real estate market – that question how high listing prices can go before sellers resist.
Hemnet’s new strategy, geared around a “Sell First, Pay Later” program and broker partnerships to combat pre-market listings (sound familiar?), suggests the company understands its predicament and plans to address it – a topic I’ll cover in my next analysis.