The Ever-Shifting Landscape of Mortgage Disruption

Recent growth and contraction in the mortgage, iBuyer, and Power Buyer space has resulted in a reshuffling of the largest businesses aiming to disrupt the industry.

Why it matters: Mortgage is an emerging battleground in real estate, and the number of Mortgage Loan Originators (MLOs) employed by a company is an important leading indicator of that company's firepower and strategic intent in the space. Of note:

• Opendoor has surged to #3 after acquiring RedDoor.
  

• Significant layoffs at Knock and Homie have pushed Homeward into the #1 spot of emerging Power Buyers (full disclosure: I'm an advisor to Homeward).

Zillow and Knock have shed MLOs during a series of recent layoffs.

• Zillow's MLO headcount is down 17 percent and Knock is down a massive 50 percent from December.

Better Mortgage and its employees have had a tough five months . So far, the business has lost about half -- around 600 -- of its MLOs through a series of layoffs.

Comparatively, Zillow still has significant firepower at its disposal; all eyes are on what's next for Zillow Home Loans in a post-Zillow Offers world.

Redfin and Prosperity Home Mortgage (a subsidiary of mega-broker HomeServices of America) dwarf Zillow and the others in the space, highlighting the latent power of incumbency.

• Redfin (through Bay Equity ), Prosperity, and Zillow operate more traditional mortgage businesses, while the others offer more disruptive services.

• It's also important to differentiate between purchase and refinance business; many of the Power Buyers and iBuyers are focused on purchase.

The bottom line: Real estate tech disruptors are investing billions to build integrated brokerage and mortgage experiences.

• Tracking MLOs over time reveals who is marshaling resources for future growth, who is making strategic retreats, and who has the most potential to effect change in the future.